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Sunday Stakes: Cheat Sheet for Saratoga's Better Talk Now Stakes
SUNDAY, AUGUST 25, 2019
by: Rich Bieglmeier
Better Talk Now Stakes
Distance: 1 Mile (Inner Turf)
Race 8 - Post Time – 4:46 pm eastern
Field Size: 7
Distance/Surface Bias: Better be in the first five in the opening quarter. The win rates are evenly split with two having the slightest of edges.
Post Position Bias: The five spot has dominated. After that, it's either the inside two or posts six and seven.
#1 - FRONT RUN THE FED won his last by 13 lengths. Usually a big win is followed by another. He is stretching out for the first time and trainer Chad Brown wins at 31% when going long for the first time.
#5 – PERFORMER is stretching for the first time too after he recorded the highest last race speed figure in the group. Trainer Claud McGaughey, III wins at 23% with first time route runners. PERFORMER has a win and a third in his two races, both as the favorite.
#7 – BULLETIN should be on the lead out of the gate. He's wired the field in his three wins, all on grass. He's going more than 5 1/2 furlongs for the first time. The question is, can he hold a lead that long?
Value Plays and Long Shots:
#3 - BOURBON WAR looks like he is searching for his place trying turf for the first time. He's got class as he qualified for the Kentucky Derby and ran in the Preakness, but trainer Mark Hennig wins at just 3% with horses making their first grass start.
#2 - OUR BRAINTRUST is another with strong back-class making his first run on grass, a 12% winner for trainer Mark Casse. His running style fits well with Toga's inner turf bias.
#4 - SWAMP RAT is dropping in class and has a win with three seconds in eight turf races. He looks like the best of the rest and maybe catches show money or fills out the backend of the superfecta.
Pace based on most recent races:
Early Speed: Performer, Regally Irish, Bulletin
Stalkers: Front Run the Fed, Our Braintrust, Swamp Rat, (Achilles Warrior)
Closers: Bourbon War
Early Race Outlook: BULLETIN should take command out of the gate. PERFORMER looks like he's taking the co-pilot seat with REGALLY IRISH trying to keep up.
The Play: FRONT RUN THE FED has two wins, a second, and a third in four grass starts. PERFORMER is making his first run on grass, a 24% angle for trainer Claude McGaughey III. BULLETIN has three wins in four turf races. BOURBON WAR has the class, but can he run on grass?
#1 - Front Run the Fed 2-1
Exacta 1,3,5,7 Box
Good luck at the races!
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