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Dutch Betting the 2020 Kentucky Derby Future Wagering Pool on a $50 Budget
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2019
by: Rich Bieglmeier
Extra sleep, football, family and food, that's Thanksgiving for most people. Ahh, but for horseplayers, this Thanksgiving offers the first chance to lay some cheese on 2020 Kentucky Derby contenders. The first Kentucky Derby Future Wagering Pool was released at noon on Thanksgiving.
Line maker, Mike Battaglia set the pool odds for 22 horses with two all other bets: all other three-year-old fillies at 30-1 and the chalk, all other three-year-olds (AO3s), at 6/5. Bettors seem to believe the 2020 champ is not included in the 22 ranked horses as live odds for the AO3s are 4/5.
INDEPENDENCE HALL is the horse Battaglia likes most to wear the roses for the 146th Kentucky Derby at 12-1. Early money says TIZ THE LAW is top choice to be the KD champ, bet down to 10-1 from opening odds of 20-1.
Considering all horses are 10-1 and higher, the Kentucky Derby Future Wagering Pool is an excellent candidate for a Dutch Win Bet. "Dutching" is a strategy where you bet multiple horses to "WIN" and turn a profit if one of the selections makes it to the winners' circle. It's designed to deliver a positive return-on-investment (ROI) over time. Normally, we suggest only using three-to-four horses with odds of 2-1 or higher. With a field of 22 and odds of 10-1 and up, the KD Future Wager Pool is perfect for Dutch Betting.
Here is how it works:
You can download our FREE Dutch Calculator or do it yourself with following steps.
Pick the horses you think have the best chance of winning.
Determine each horse's odds of winning according to current odds with the following formula:
The math would look like this for a horse with 4-1 odds.
1/ODDS+1 = 1/4 (ODDS) + 1 = 1/5, which equals 0.20 * 100 = 20%.
Do this for all the horses you've selected.
Add the results from all the horse you plan on betting as this is an overall chance that one of the horses will win the race – at least according to the odds.
HORSE #1 (Race Time Odds 4-1)
HORSE #2 (Race Time Odds 5-1)
HORSE #3 (Race Time Odds 7-1)
HORSE #1 = 20% (1/4+1 = 1/5 = 0.20 * 100 = 20%)
HORSE #2 = 16.7% (1/5+1 = 1/6 = 0.167 * 100 = 16.7%)
HORSE #3 = 12.5% (1/7+1 = 1/8 = 0.125 * 100 = 12.5%)
Now we add the percentages for the horse in the Dutch Win Bet: 20 + 16.7 + 12.5 = 49.2
Divide each horse's individual percentage by the overall percentage. Ten multiply this amount by the total amount of money you want to bet on the race. Let's use $50 with our example.
HORSE #1 = 20/ 49.2 = 0.406 x $50 = $20.30
HORSE #2 = 16.7 / 49.2 = 0.339 x $50 = $16.95
HORSE #3 = 12.5 / 49.2 = 0.254 x $50 = $12.70
Total Bet = 20.30 + 16.95 + 12.70 = $49.95
Win bets are made in dollar increments. Use the rounding rules you learned in elementary school.
Total Bet = 20+17+13 = $50
This method will turn a profit if horse 1, 2, or 3 wins.
Let's apply the Dutch Strategy to the 2020 Kentucky Derby Future Wagering Pool. We've crunched the limited past-performance numbers for the 22 horses. These are the four horses and the live odds we will use in our Dutch Bet.
ANNEAU D'OR (PP:2) live odds - 42-1
STORM THE COURT (PP:17) live odds - 36-1
EIGHT RINGS (PP: 7) live odds - 25-1
INDEPENDENCE HALL (PP: 13) live odds - 15-1
Using the 1/ODDS +1 formula we arrive at the following odds to win.
EIGHT RINGS (PP: 7) 0.0385
INDEPENDENCE HALL (PP: 13) 0.0625
The sum is 0.1513, which means we'll wager the following on each horse in our Dutch Bet.
Total Wager equals $51. If any of our late November quartet comes home first on May 2nd, our Kentucky Derby Future wager will turn a healthy profit of at least $280.
At 42-1, ANNEAU D'OR would pay approximately $344 with our $8 bet.
At 36-1, STORM THE COURT would pay roughly $333 with our $9 bet.
At 25-1, EIGHT RINGS would pay close to $338 with our $13 bet.
And at 15-1, INDEPENDENCE HALL would pay around $336 with our $21 bet.
Whether you like our picks or your own, the 2020 Kentucky Derby Future Wagering Pool is perfect for Dutch Win Betting because of the high odds.
Remember, you can download our FREE Dutch Win Calculator here.
Good luck at the races!
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