Let's see if we can nail the late Pick 4 at Keeneland Sunday afternoon. The ticket includes the pair of Sunday stakes races with prize money of at least $100,000: the Grade III, KENTUCKY UTILITIES TRANSYLVANIA STAKES in race seven and the Grade II, ELKHORN STAKES in race nine.
We get started in the sixth, 1 mile for Maidens with a purse of $70,000. Although maiden races tend to be less predictable than most, we'll go with just two to kick off the $0.50 Pick 4.
FLATOYA (PP: 5 ML 7/2) made her first start in seven-months on June 13th. She came out of the barn to run her second-best speed number while reducing her 1/2 mile fraction by two seconds compared to her previous race; albeit at 5 1/2 furlongs versus 6, but it was on grass instead of dirt.
HEAVENLY SIS (PP: 6 ML 5/2) recorded the top, last race speed figure for this crew, but not by much. It was her first race after four-months on the bench. She had one previous go on Keeneland's main track, scoring one of her best efforts.
We'll go with a trio of three-year-olds for the second leg of our Pick 4.
FIELD PASS (PP: 1 ML 2-1) won three of his last four, including his last. He is making the classic, third start off the sidelines. Trainer Michael Maker wins third starts and follows a win with another at 18%. A clean break seems to be the key. If he gets off to a good start, his chances will be good.
VINTAGE PRINT (PP: 5 ML 4-1) is two for two on turf and one for one at the distance. Trainer and jockey combo of Chad Brown and Tyler Gaffalione have won seven of their last 15 together. He'll be making his second start after a layoff, another strong winner for Brown at 25%.
FANCY LIQUOR (PP: 7 ML 4-1) might also be undefeated on turf if he wasn't literally scared of shadows. He jumped shadows in his last and still finished second by just a 1/2 length. Since, he's put in a pair of strong workouts, including a bullet on the 4th of July.
We have a RADAR horse in Race 8, C Z ROCKET (PP: 2 ML 10-1), we aren't going to single him, but we certainly hope he scores at 10-1. He's won his last two races and they haven't been close. Last time out, he ran 6 furlongs 1.6 seconds faster than he did in his previous 6-furlong run. The same race could equal the same result.
WHITMORE (PP: 11 ML 1-1) is the only other horse we'll use in leg three of our Pick 4. He's dropping in class after posting the highest, last race speed figure, one of our favorite angles, but not at our favorite odds.
We close out the Pick in race 9 with the Grade II, ELKHORN STAKES.
It's a long one, 1 1/2 miles on turf. If you want a single, this might be the race to do it with ZULU APLHA (PP: 5 ML 8/5). He's a neck away from winning three in a row. He posted the highest, last race speed number and has hit the board in six of nine at the looooong distance.
ARKLOW (PP: 10 ML 3-1) is the other that we are going to include. He finished second by a head in his last as the post-time favorite despite needing to get through traffic late. Trainer Brad Cox rebounds at 30% with beaten favs. He's also gotten the better of our top pick on at least three occasions.
Here's the Pick 4 ticket:
Race 6: 5,6
Race 7: 1,5,7
Race 8: 2,11
Race 9: 5,10
The $0.50 ticket prices out to $12 and $24 for every dollar. Hopefully, some of the value horses hit and makes for a nice Sunday afternoon payout.