Saturday Stakes: Putting Saratoga Track Bias to Work on Travers Day

SATURDAY, AUGUST 24, 2019
 
by: Rich Bieglmeier
 

Saratoga dominates Saturday's stakes race schedule with seven of the day's 10 races offering a cash prize of at least $100,000. The Spa stakes card includes:

Race 5 - $600,000 FOREGO STAKES - Grade I

Race 6 - $500,000 BALLERINA STAKES - Grade I

Race 7 - $500,000 H. ALLEN JERKENS STAKES - Grade I

Race 8 - $400,000 BALLSTON SPAE STAKES - Grade II

Race 9 - $700,000 PERSONAL ENSIGN STAKES - Grade I

Race 10 - $850,000 SWORD DANCER STAKES - Grade I

Race 11 - $1.25 Million TRAVERS STAKES - Grade I

Looking at it, that's a hell of a schedule with more than $4.7 million available to pad bank accounts. Of course, our Travers Stakes Wagering Guide covers the seven top level races with our picks, early race analysis, commentary and more. Make sure you are totally prepared for the Travers card by getting your Travers Wagering Guide here.

The first three races are 7 furlongs on dirt. So, let's look at some of the biases of the distance and surface to identify horses that might benefit. There have been 7 furlong, dirt races during the current Toga meet.

Post Position Bias:

As you can see on the chart below, horses lining up in the five hole have won the most races. Overall, posts three through six have won at 60%. Add in the rail and the win rate moves to 73%.

Here are the horses wearing the green 5 in races five, six and seven.

Race 5 - FOREGO STAKES - BON RAISON (ML 12-1)

Race 6 - BALLERINA STAKES - MIA MISCHIEF (ML 5-1)

Race 7 - H. ALLEN JERKENS STAKES - NITROUS (ML 10-1)

Horses lining up from eight and up will have to work against the numbers if they plan on taking pictures in the Winners' Circle.

There are only six runners in the FOREGO STAKES. It's not an issue. Only DAWN THE DESTROYER (PP: 7 ML 15-1) faces the uphill post challenge it the BALLERINA STAKES. Her recent form suggests the best she might offer is filling in the back end of the trifecta or superfecta. ROWAYTON (PP: 8 ML 6-1) and HOG CREEK HUSTLE (PP: 9 ML 8-1) look like legitimate contenders in the H. ALLEN JERKENS STAKES but will need to overcome the outside post position disadvantage to hit the tape first.

Pace Bias:

Near or on the lead is where you want your horse to be when NYRA announcer Larry Collmus calls out the running order at the quarter-mile marker. Thirty-three of the 45 winners at 7 furlongs on the dirt ran in the first four at the 1/4 pole. Just four winners raced outside the front six, roughly a 10% chance a closer takes home a trophy in races five, six, or seven.

Race 5 - FOREGO STAKES early pace types:

PROMISES FULFILLED (PP: 1 ML 5/2)

MITOLE (PP: 3 ML 4/5)

KILLYBEGS CAPTAIN (PP: 4 ML 15-1)

Race 6 - BALLERINA STAKES early pace types:

COME DANCING (PP: 2 ML 6/5)

SEPARATIONOFPOWERS (PP: 4 ML 9/5)

MIA MISCHIEF (PP: 5 ML 5-1)

MINIT TO STARDOM (PP: 6 ML 8-1)

Race 7 - $500,000 H. ALLEN JERKENS STAKES

SHANCELOT (PP: 1 ML 1/2) (RADAR HORSE)

CALL PAUL (PP: 2 ML 15-1)

ROWAYTON (PP: 8 ML 6-1)

As you can see, there are a few horses that cut across the post position and running style advantages.

Crossover Horses:

Race 5 - FOREGO STAKES early pace types:

PROMISES FULFILLED (PP: 1 ML 5/2)

MITOLE (PP: 3 ML 4/5)

KILLYBEGS CAPTAIN (PP: 4 ML 15-1)

Race 6 - BALLERINA STAKES early pace types:

SEPARATIONOFPOWERS (PP: 4 ML 9/5)

MIA MISCHIEF (PP: 5 ML 5-1)