Belmont Park: Rolling Lucky Sevens on Stars and Stripes Saturday
Seven is a lucky number right? If that's true, there might not be a better day to bet the horses than the seventh day of the seventh month and there might not be a better place than Belmont Park, just outside of New York City.
Lucky or just plain good handicapping, there is definitely money to be made at Belmont on Saturday as it's been one of our hottest tracks of late. Our average payout per race day over the last 14-days is $4,833.00.
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We believe we have a good handle on the weekend and have identified some strong biases and angles in the last two-weeks at the 113 year-old, Belmont, New York track which just recently saw Justify take the elusive Triple Crown. Here is one observation: be it dirt, turf, sprints or routes, speed has been a heavy factor at Belmont as of late. In all but a handful of races, the winner raced 3rd or better at the 1/4 call during the last two weeks.
Some speed horses we have our handicapping eyes on include: Shaft of Light (RACE 7 - PP 4 - ML 7/2) and Dr Dorr (RACE 9 - PP 5 - ML 3/1). We consider Saturday's Belmont card a bettor's delight; 11 races with deep fields and some vulnerable favorites. The powerful card is bookmarked by maidens in races 1 and 11. Races 2 and 3 are $62,500 optional claimers with $90,000 allowance races in 4 and 5. Then it's grades stakes races from race 6 thru 10.
Analyze It - One in a field of nine looking to take the $1.2M Belmont Derby
The Belmont Derby (Race 10) is the headliner for Saturday's stacked card. Analyze It (PP 3) is the 5/2 morning-line favorite in a 1 1/4 mile inner-turf race. The early favorite is definitely a serious contender, but is he the one to beat, or a BEST BET?
In our 7-page Stars and Stripes Wagering Guide (see sample) we mention that this Chad Brown trainee looked like he was easily becoming the best three-year-old turf horse in the country but was stunned last time out in a loss to Catholic Boy in the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge Stakes. After looking as though he was going to go right past Catholic Boy he made some contact with him, and it almost looked as though it upset Catholic Boy, and he re-rallied to win by a neck.
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In our opinion, races 2, 8, and 9 offer great wagering value with 10 starters in races 2 and 8, and 11 in race 9; none of which have a morning line favorite lower than 3-1. We wouldn't be too surprised to see this trio of races produce some nice tickets, especially exotics, so be sure and keep an eye on these races and post time odds to identify some great oportunities.
Identifying vulnerable favorites is another of our top betting strategies. Payouts can swell when top-dogs don't cross the finish line first, even better when they fall out of the money completely.
Races 4, 6 and 7 saddle up a few beatable favorites; Mendelssohn makes his return to the races in the 6th after finishing 20th at the Kentucky Derby. Two questions he must answer: is he ready after finishing 73 lengths behind Justify, and does his running style fit Belmont? We think we know the answer.
We are definitely excited about Saturday's Stars and Stripes Belmont Card. We are confident there will be some big payouts. We've done our homework, looked at all the angles, and made our selections. Regardless of the outcome, Saturday will make for a great day of racing, we guarantee it!
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