Radar Horse Roundup: August 10, 2018
FRIDAY, AUGUST 10, 2018Superstition, it goes hand and hand with horse racing and pretty much all games of chance. These are my lucky socks, the last time I sat at this table, I never win on Tuesday, whenever I bet on that jockey he loses, but when I don't he wins... you know the score.
So, we are a touch hesitant to talk up our new Radar Horse selections; afraid to jinx its early success. Like Shakespeare said, "Who knows himself a braggart, let him fear this, for it will come to pass that every braggart shall be found an ass."
Hopefully we can "double stamp it, no erasies!" (Dumb and Dumber reference) on our good fortune so far and avoid becoming an ass. To fill you in on the strategy behind our Radar Horse selections, it goes like this. We record the winning horse of every race at our most popular tracks. We log all the numbers, the call-marker positions and times, class, conditions, surface, track-conditions, jockey, trainer... it takes forever to manually enter this stuff - but we're not complaining.
Then, we analyze the data looking for horses that ran races better than the level at which they competed i.e. the final time of a claimer $5,000 would be competitive at allowance $25,000. It makes sense, right?
The thinking was these Radar Horses (this nomenclature will become more clear in the near future), are razor sharp and at the top of their form. Old-timers called it performance-cycles. The horses at the top of their performance-cycle have room to step up in class, and many times, are overlooked by the betting public as a result. So, you can get overlay-odds on a horse that should really be 9/5 but is 3-1.
Although it's a small sample size, 11-races so far, these are the results so far: six winners (55%), a second and a third (73% in-the-money), and three others. If you put $2 on all 11 to win, that's an outlay of $22, easy math, we know. The six winners paid a total of $49.60, that is a handsome return-on-investment (ROI) of 125%. The average winning ticket is $8.27 or odds of 3-1.
If our thesis about getting higher odds holds true and remains at 3-1, our winning percentage could fall all the way to 20% and the strategy would be breakeven: two wins at $8.00 = $16, and $8 losses at $2 each = $16. Obviously, we like 55% better and expect to deliver better than 20% winners.
Now that we've put on the wrong socks, here is the commentary our paid customers get with Friday, August 10, 2018's three Radar Horse selections; all fingers and toes crossed.
LAUREL PARK - RACE #8:
Last time out, TOOK OVER, ran the second fastest 5.5-furlong Laurel dirt race in nearly a month. It was a claimer $16,000 and he's running at the same price. His final time was on-par with, make that better than, allowance and stakes winners at the same distance and surface. The race is scheduled to run on grass. TOOK OVER is a main-track-only entrant, meaning if he goes it will be on dirt; which is a good thing as the four-year-old is zero-for-two on the turf. If he runs a similar effort to his last, TOOK OVER might wire the field, again.
MONMOUTH PARK - RACE #1:
ROUGH NIGHT is entered as Also Eligible (AE) for Monmouth's opener. Trainer John Stevens has picked a good spot for ROUGH NIGHT should he get in as he is likely to be lone speed in a race full of deep-closers and mid-pack runners. Based on the three-year-old's fractions in his last two outings, both on grass, he should be able to set the pace without much stress and control the race. We can see two, maybe three, other entries within a length or two at the half-mile marker. If the 1/2 mile call is more than 48 seconds and he has the lead, it could be ROUGH NIGHT's third consecutive gate-to-wire win.
WOODBINE - RACE #6:
MIDNIGHT BREW blazed her way around Woodbine's 6-furlong on the turf in her last run. She posted the fastest time at the distance/surface in the last few weeks; topping a Grade 2 winner and better by more than 1.3 seconds than the next best claimer. The main competition is likely to be the one, MY CANTATA, but MIDNIGHT BREW beat her two-back, rolling by CANTATA late at 7-furlongs. The shorter distance is a concern. However, trainer Kevin Attard is winning at a 24% rate with first-time claims, and 26% with horses who won last.
Hopefully, our Radar Horse success rolls on, and if not, we will learn from what happens and make adjustments to our new program.
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Best of luck today!
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