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SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 2019
by: Rich Bieglmeier
Forget Groundhog Day, three things mark the start of spring for me.
The Daytona 500 is next Sunday, February 17th.
The Oakland A's pitchers and catchers will be the first to report camp on Monday, February 11th, the Seattle Mariners on the 12th and just about everybody else on the 13th. Spring training will be in full swing by the 18th with the A's and Mariners getting together for the first exhibition game on the 21st.
Stakes races explode in numbers this Saturday with 17 that offer prize money of at least $100,000. Delta Downs is the busiest race track with 10 stakes races, six of which are for at least $100k.
We have all 17 covered with selections, alternative selections, suggested wages and commentary available to our pro-subscribers. You can become a pro-subscriber here.
The full schedule also includes the Kentucky Derby prep race SAM F. DAVIS STAKES at Tampa Bay Downs and two Kentucky Oaks prep qualifiers; the LAS VIRGENES STAKES at Santa Anita and the SUNCOAST STAKES at Tampa Bay Downs.
Currently second in Kentucky Derby qualifying with 18 points and $685,085 in winnings, KNICKS GO headlines Tampa's SAM F. DAVIS STAKES. A field of 10, three-year-olds with run 1 1/16th-miles on Tampa's main track with the winner adding 10 points to their Kentucky Derby qualifying points, four points are awarded for second, two for third and one for finishing fourth.
At 5-2, KNICKS GO is the lukewarm, morning-line favorite to take home the prize in the 11th race, estimated post-time is 5:25 pm Eastern. He performed poorly in his last race, finishing 11th out of fourteen, 18 lengths behind the winner - ouch. In his defense, it was KNICKS GO's first race on a sloppy track. Maybe he doesn't like mud kicked into his face?
Since his off-track debacle on November 24th, KNICKS GO has put in three strong workouts at Tampa, including two bullets. If he reverts to his second- place form at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he could get back to the winner's circle.
That's the way our handicapper sees it in our pro-subscribers' bonus commentary.
"KNICKS GO stunk it up on the slop in his last race, a return to a fast track should help him return to the winners' circle. SO ALIVE won his last at Tampa after being bumped at the start, dueling and giving up the lead in the stretch. WELL DEFINED has had two bad races in a row. If he can find his back-class from three races back, he'll be a major force. FIVE STAR GENERAL has won two in a row. He'll have to show he can handle the major step up in class."
The other big qualifying race at Tampa this Saturday afternoon is the SUNCOAST STAKES. Nine fillies will try to earn their first Kentucky Oaks points by running 1-mile and 40-yards in the ninth race on dirt. The winner receives 10 qualifying points for the Kentucky Oaks; again, second gets four points, two for third and one for completing the superfecta.
It's another race where the oddsmaker doesn't see a clear-cut favorite. SWEET DIANE (PP: 9 ML 3-1) gets the slight nod over WINNING ENVELOPE (PP: 2 ML 7/2). From a numerology standpoint, that's a lot of nines for SWEET DIANE: ninth race, nine horses and the ninth post. From a brief online search, nine is the "most worldly and sophisticated of all numbers," according to numerology.com.
Hey, don't laugh. Any horse player will tell you, whatever it takes to find a winner!
Well, maybe our handicapper isn't into numerology and uses numbers in a different way as he has a horse making her second start on top.
(fast forward to 14:51)
"LADY KATE won her debut on January 12th coming from five back to win by 1/2 length, recent works suggest she'll be sharp in race number two. SWEET DIANE is a nose and neck away from being undefeated in three races. POINT OF HONOR blasted the highest, last race speed rating in her debut and 6 length win. A repeat could be a repeat. WINNING ENVELOPE's trainer Chris Block wins non-graded stakes at 17%."
While no BIG names, at least so far, are running in the SUNCOAST STAKES, BELLAFINA will look to move to the top of the 2019 Kentucky Oaks leaderboard with a win the LAS VIRGENES STAKES. Oddsmakers think it is nearly a forgone conclusion, placing 2/5 morning line odds on BELLAFINA.
It's not that she's without competition, MOTHER MOTHER (PP: 4 ML 7/2) is currently ranked 13th on the Kentucky Oaks leaderboard and ENAYA ALRABB is ranked 19th. In just a five-horse field, all three are likely to pick-up Oaks qualifying points in the LAS VIRGENES STAKES, but we don't foresee any of the other four getting in BELLAFINA's way.
"BELLAFINA has won four out of six races, and when she wins, she tends to win by a lot. ENAYA ALRABB lost her last, a G1, by a head. MOTHER MOTHER finished second to BELLAFINA by 8 1/2 lengths in her last race and behind ENAYA ALRABB by a neck two races back. CALF MOON BAY looks to be in better current form than TOMLIN."
Have a blessed day and good luck at the races.
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