Weekly Bias: Wire-to-Wire Winners and Their Odds
THURSDAY, AUGUST 30, 2018
Depending on the source, post-time favorites win 30% to 35% of races. The shorter the field, the higher the win percentage goes. The favorite wins at roughly 40% in six horse races. Up the number to 12 participants and the number falls to 27%. That falls into the Captain Obvious category.
So, we looked through thousands of races to find speed biases that hit at rates higher than 35%. In other words, outperform favorites as a betting angle. Specifically, track, race length and surface winners that went from gate-to-wire.
Hopefully, the data presented below will help you identify horses that offer positive value on your bets i.e. putting the betting odds into your favor using probability.
At Arlington Park, we examined the last 235 races, and here are the results.
Using the information above, review race entrants and pick the fastest horse(s) and, if you get the breakeven odds or better, over time, that angle will provide a positive return-on-investment.
Let's look at Delaware Park's last 200 races.
Obviously, six and eight races are small sample sizes. Horse players might focus on the 6-furlong dirt races at Delaware park. Although, if you get a nice, lone speed horse at one of the other two-distances, with better odds than breakeven, that's probably a good bet.
Only one distance and surface qualified at Del Mar Racetrack after analyzing 263 races.
Again, a limited data set, but a trend is a trend until it is no longer a trend. Putting something down on Del Mar speed at 1 1/16 miles, or adding it to your exotic bets, could enhance payouts if you get fat odds.
Saratoga Racetrack is on the opposite side of the country of Del Mar, and opposite side of early speed's impact from 331 races.
Here we have much reliable data because of the number of instances. Saratoga offers some high probability bets that can pay off nicely. Keep this info in your back-pocket in the final days of this SPA session.
Laurel Park offers one excellent distance/surface speed angle. The results from 209 races:
Go through the Laurel Park program, check out all the 5.5-furlong dirt races and see if you can identify a single or wheel horse to minimize ticket costs.
In the last 231 Monmouth Park races, if it's dirt, it's probably speedy, especially the short stuff.
Considering the breadth of wire-to-wire winners, it's probably a safe bet Monmouth Park will produce multiple out of the gate and never look back winners on every card. It should help make the New Jersey track one of the easier to handicap.
And we wrap it up north of the border at Woodbine Racetrack, which we don't think of as speed-friendly but, in the last 216 outings, three actually pass our test.
The trend is unmistakable, the shorter the faster; none the less, with Woodbine's reputation as a closers course, you might get some favorable plays at the above distance/surface for front-runners.
For the record, we also examined Gulfstream Park; not one length on any surface crossed the 35% threshold in the last six-weeks. So, play the rate-to-close types and you should hook some winners.
Don't forget to check out our Radar Horses as we have two running today, one at Penn National and another at Saratoga.
Make sure you check out our social sites, as we'll be sharing observations for other tracks exclusively on our Facebook, Instagram and Twitter accounts.
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