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Bias Report: Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park Offer Clear Trends
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2018
by: Rich Bieglmeier
Winter racing is in full swing. The lucky ones get to race at Gulfstream Park in South Florida, but the tough ones race face first into the winter cold in New York at Aqueduct.
Gulfstream and Aqueduct are the top of the food chain for December horse racing. That is, until Santa Anita comes online after Christmas. Make sure you get our Wagering Guide for the Malibu Stakes races on the 26th.
To make the most out of pre-Christmas racing, let's look at the recent track biases at Aqueduct and Gulfstream. Perhaps, we can uncover an edge or two to help pay your holiday credit card tab.
The two most common races for the last week at the 'Duct were 6-furlong and 1-mile dirt races. There were 14, six-furlong races during the week; four of them went wire-to-wire (w2w). There was clearly an early-speed bias as nine of the fourteen 6-furlong runs saw the eventual winner running first or second at the quarter-mile marker. That's 64.3% and a little lower than 3/5 odds.
Horse players might consider avoiding the first two posts and only one of the last 14 winners successfully rode the rail and just two managed to score the W from the two spot. Post positions three through six won nine of the 14, again 64.3%.
You might want to pay particular attention to jockey Junior Alvarado as he took home first prize money in five races, four of which he ran first or second out of the gate.
Aqueduct 6-Furlong, Dirt play: Early speed breaking from posts three through six, especially with Junior Alvarado in the saddle.
There were also 14, one-mile races. The extra two-furlongs impacted race position in a big way. Only three horses managed to go w2w. Overall, only five winners arrived at the quarter-mile marker first, second or third.
On average, the profile of a winner at the position calls are as follows.
Again, the inside post-positions were at a disadvantage. A mere four winners left gates one, two or three. That means 71.4% - same as 2/5 odds - started with the four silks and higher with the six being most popular, scoring five times.
Aqueduct 1-Mile, Dirt play: stalkers/closers leaving from gates four through seven.
One-thousand, two-hundred and eighty-seven miles south on I-95, the weather is a lot warmer, but the most common races remain the same.
Six-furlong and 1-mile dirt races had most of the action in the last week.
Although there was an early-speed bias at 6-furlongs, only one horse was on the lead from gate-to-wire. However, seven on the 10 winners at the distance/surface ran first, second or third in the opening quarter mile. Once again, close to 2/5 odds.
Unlike Aqueduct, the three inside posts fared much better in sunny, warm Hallandale, Florida. Seven of the 10 to find the wire first stated from slots one, two or three. Four of them started on the rail.
Gulfstream Park 6-Furlong, Dirt play: early speed, but most likely running second or third in the first 1/4 mile and starting from one of the three inside post positions.
One-mile, dirt races were the most popular last week, running 14 times. Speed was KING at this distance. Six made their way to the winner's circle racing in first at the quarter mile. Another three ran second with one third. That's 10 out of 14 and another 71.4% angle.
While speed is the way, you better look outside. It's 10 of 14, again, making their way home first leaving from gate #4 and out.
Gulfstream Park 1-Mile, Dirt play: speed, speed, and more speed, especially those wearing silk number four or higher.
Finally, 5-Furlong turf races ran enough to pay attention. The grass sprints ran a lucky seven times with four wire-to-wire, drag race Ws. All but one winner took off from post five and higher, with all four w2W winners parting from an outside number.
Gulfstream 5-Furlong, turf play: Look for horses with a history of 1s in their past-performance lines and drawing post numbers of five and higher.
Hopefully, these insights help you find a few more winter-racing winners.
Good luck at the races.
Good luck at the races!
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