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Saturday Stakes: Arlington Million Cheat Sheet
SATURDAY, AUGUST 10, 2019
by: Rich Bieglmeier
Arlington Park Racetrack, about an hour outside of Chicago on a good day traffic wise, is the place to be if you are a horseplayer this Saturday. The beautiful track hosts its marquee event, The Arlington Million. The track hosts four of the day's 14 Stakes Races with prize money of at least $100,000. Of course, a million is one the table in the namesake race.
Whether you are at the track or on your computer, hopefully our Arlington Million cheat sheet helps you cash some winning tickets.
Arlington Million – Grade I
Distance: 1 1/4 Miles (Turf)
Age: Three-years-old and up
Race 11 - Post Time – 7:12 pm eastern
Post Position Bias: There haven't been any races at the distance/surface during the current meet. So, we looked at every race run at more than one mile on the grass.
The inside two posts have dominated trips to the winners' circle, coming home first at 46%. Include the five and six posts and that's three out of four winners.
Distance/Surface Bias: Horses within the first five in the opening quarter accounted for eight out of 10 winners.
Early Pace Rankings:
PIVOINE (PP: 7) and INTELLOGENT (PP: 9) are shipping in from Europe and are making their first US starts and no data is available. Although, available comments for PIVOINE suggests he is a mid-pack runner.
Running Style based on most recent races:
Early Speed: Hunting Horn, Bandua
Stalkers: Robert Bruce, Catcho En Die, The Great Day, Pivoine
Closers: Magic Wand, Bricks and Mortar, Captivating Moon
Early Race Outlook: HUNTING HORN has been on the lead in three of his last four races and will likely play the rabbit role today. BANDUA is not much for being on the lead but has a history of co-piloting. CATCHO EN DIE and THE GREAT DAY will likely take their places behind the leaders.
#3 – Bricks and Mortar posted the highest, last race speed figure in a win, one of five straight Ws. He has two wins in two races at the distance and has won nine of 11 lifetime races.
#10 – Bandua should be near the lead like he was in his last race, a win on Arlington's turf course at 1 3/16 miles. He drew clear as the favorite and now has a win and a third in two AP turf races.
#1 – Robert Bruce is looking to defend his 2018 Arlington Million Crown. He gets one of the coveted inside two posts, which have won races of more than one mile on Arlington grass at 23%.
Value Plays and Long Shots:
#2 – Magic Wand has run mostly outside the USA. In his three races in the States, he's posted triple-digit speed figures twice and just missed in the third. He appears to have a strong late run and could be dangerous if he is close late.
#5 – Hunting Horn could be lone speed, which is always dangerous. If he can control the pace into the stretch, he could be hard to pass late.
#9 – Intellogent has only raced in France and is making his US debut. He's hit the board in six of his 11 starts and could benefit from getting LASIX for the first time.
The Play: BRICKS AND MORTAR has won four in a row and nine of 11, all on grass. BANDUA has two races on Arlington Turf, a win and a third. ROBERT BRUCE has two wins and a third in four races at the distance. MAGIC WAND is also entered in 9th. If he runs, he has four seconds and a third in five turf starts in Europe.
#3 - Bricks and Mortar 8/5
Good luck at the races!
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