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SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2019
by: Rich Bieglmeier
A few weeks back, we chronicled a day of Horse Racing Roulette results at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita to see if the new casino-like wager is a good bet or something to forget for horseplayers. At least for Sunday, February 20, 2019, Horse Racing Roulette was a license to print money.
Of course, one day is a limited data set. So, we recorded every single Gulfstream and Santa Anita race that offered Horse Racing Roulette to see if the wager provides an edge i.e. a license to print money.
Through Thursday, February 21, 2019, there were 236 Roulette races at Gulfstream and 246 at Santa Anita for a total of 482 Horse Racing Roulette races. That's a much better data set than a single Sunday and will give us a better sense of how to use roulette to our advantage, if possible.
Here are the results by track:
Gulfstream:
RED won at 47.03%
When RED won, 73.87% of the time the race winner was the Post-Time favorite.
The average RED roulette payout was $3.62 while the winning horse paid an average of $5.59.
The roughly equivalent odds for something that wins at 47% are a little lower than 6/5. Six-to-five odds have a minimum payout of $4.40 on a $2 bet. Compared to the average RED roulette payout of $3.62, that's $0.78 less than needed to breakeven.
BLACK won at 42.8%
When BLACK won, 15.84% of the time the race winner was the Post-Time favorite.
The average BLACK roulette payout was $4.69 while the winning horse paid an average of $13.27.
The roughly equivalent odds for something that wins at 43% are a little higher than 6/5. Six-to-five odds have a minimum payout of $4.40 on a $2 bet. Compared to the average BLACK roulette payout of $4.69, BLACK has produced a small, positive return-on-investment.
GREEN won at 10.17%
When GREEN won, 12.5% of the time the race winner was the Post-Time favorite
The average GREEN roulette payout was $11.68 while the winning horse paid an average of $36.66.
The roughly equivalent odds for something that wins at 12.5% are 7-1. Seven-to-one odds have a minimum payout of $16.00 on a $2 bet. Compared to the average GREEN roulette payout of $11.68, GREEN has been a big loser, falling short by $4.32 per race.
Regardless of Roulette color, the average field size is 8.5 horses.
Santa Anita:
RED won at 47.56%
When RED won, 56.41% of the time the race winner was the Post-Time favorite.
The average RED roulette payout was $3.88 while the winning horse paid an average of $6.92.The roughly equivalent odds for something that wins at 47% are a little lower than 6/5. Six-to-five odds have a minimum payout of $4.40 on a $2 bet. Compared to the average RED roulette payout of $3.88, that's $0.52 less than needed to breakeven.
BLACK won at 45.12%
When BLACK won, 12.61% of the time the race winner was the Post-Time favorite.
The average BLACK roulette payout was $4.58 while the winning horse paid an average of $13.57.
The roughly equivalent odds for something that wins at 45% are a little higher than 6/5. Six-to-five odds have a minimum payout of $4.40 on a $2 bet. Compared to the average BLACK roulette payout of $4.58, BLACK has produced a small, positive return-on-investment.
GREEN won at 7.32%
Zero GREEN winners were the Post-Time favorite.
The average GREEN roulette payout was $12.22 while the winning horse paid an average of $30.59.
The roughly equivalent odds for something that wins at 12.5% are 13-1. Thirteen-to-one odds have a minimum payout of $28.00 on a $2 bet. Compared to the average GREEN roulette payout of $12.22, GREEN has been a big loser, falling short by $15.78 per race.
Regardless of Roulette color, the average field size is 8 horses.
Based on the results so far, BLACK is the best Horse Racing Roulette option, essentially breakeven so far. However, if you can accurately predict the color winner in 60% of the Roulette races at Gulfstream and Santa Anita, you'll make a nice profit based on the average payouts.
A suggested strategy using GTS picks:
Using our top four picks, which are updated in the event of scratches:
If three or more of our top four picks are BLACK or RED, select that color.
If the top four picks are split between BLACK and RED, use the top choice's Roulette color as the tie-breaker.
If the color is GREEN, wager on the GREEN horses in our selections rather than the GREEN roulette option.
You can find the corresponding horses, colors, and results using Equibase's entries and results. We'll be monitoring Horse Racing Roulette results and update our strategy based on the highest ROI.
Have a blessed day and good luck at the races.
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