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SUNDAY, MAY 3, 2020
by: Rich Bieglmeier
Some sun is shining through the corona clouds as Churchill Downs announced their spring meet will begin on May 16, 2020. We expect more tracks in states that are reopening will follow Churchill's lead and the calendar of races will begin to expand.
In the meantime, let's try to expand the number of winning tickets while reducing your costs with betting strategies laid out in our 70-page Wagering Guide. Our focus today is using Best Bets for exacta, trifecta and daily double wagers.
A couple of cleanup items before moving on to today's lesson. The 70-page Wagering Guide is available to all Monthly PRO Subscribers at no additional cost. Our Best Bets finish in-the-money roughly 72% of the time. Of course, some days the hit rate is higher and some days it's lower. We identify three best bets per track daily and do our best to identify horses with odd of 2-1 or higher. A 3/5 morning-line favorite is not a Best Bet, in our opinion. As it is with all races, morning line odds are not post-time odds. Most times, the odds for our Best Bets fall, keep this in mind as you craft your tickets.
We've identified OUTSHINE (PP: 6 ML 7/2) as a BEST BET in race 10 at Gulfstream Park on Sunday. He ran evenly in his first start off the bench, finishing fourth of 10 in an $32,000 Optional Claiming race at 1 1/16 miles on Tampa Turf. Sunday, he's making his second start off after a short layoff, his second start on turf (his first was his last effort), and racing in a claiming race for the first time.
Trainer Todd Pletcher wins second starts at 19%, wins second turf starts at 19% and at 22% for horses making their first claiming start. Additionally, OUTSHINE is getting a jockey upgrade to Luis Saez who wins at 18% with Pletcher and has won 21% of his starts. There are a lot of high percentage angles working in OUTSHINE's favor.
Here is how we suggest using OUTSHINE (and other BEST BETS) in our Wagering Guide for exacta and trifecta wagers using our Race 10 selections for Gulfstream Park on Sunday.
Gulfstream Park Picks for race 10:
EXACTA - Key the BEST BET
Use the BEST BET as the winner over our next three selections.
Use the next three selections and our two alternative picks to win with our BEST BET to finish second.
Exacta tickets for Gulfstream Park race 10 using OUTSHINE as a best bet would look like this: 6 with 2,4,9 and 1,2,3,4,9 with 6
TRIFECTA – Win, Place and Show Wheel with BEST BET
Win: BEST BET with four or five of our remaining picks with four or five of our remaining picks.
Place: Four of five of our reaming picks with BEST BET with four or five of our remaining picks.
Show: Four of five of our reaming picks with four or five of our remaining picks with BEST BET.
Trifecta Wheel tickets for Gulfstream Park race 10 using OUTSHINE as a best bet would look like this:
Win - 6 with 1,2,3,4,9 with 1,2,3,4,9
Place - 1,2,3,4,9 with 6 with 1,2,3,4,9
Show - 1,2,3,4,9 with 1,2,3,4,9 with 6
TRIFECTA – BEST BET with one or two Alternative Key Horses
BEST BET with one or two of our other picks with the remaining three to four selections.
BEST BET with reaming three to four selections with one or two of our other picks.
One or two of our other picks with BEST BET with the remaining three to four selections.
The remaining three to four selections with BEST BET with one or two of our other picks.
Tickets for Gulfstream Park race 10 using OUTSHINE as a best bet would look like this:
6 with 2 with 1,3,4,9
6 with 1,3,4,9 with 2
2 with 6 with 1,3,4,9
1,3,4,9 with 6 with 2
Hopefully, these exacta and trifecta strategies outlined in our Wagering Guide will help you cash more tickets, starting today!
Have a question for Rich Bieglmeier? Email him at gtsrichb@gmail.com.
Good luck at the races!
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