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Our 2020 Kentucky Derby Favorites, For Now
SUNDAY, MARCH 8, 2020
by: Rich Bieglmeier
The field for the 2020 Kentucky Derby is starting to take shape with as many as six likely qualifiers already set for May 2, 2020. If you have a favorite that you believe is the standout and is going to wear the roses, then now is a good time to bet him via the third Kentucky Derby Futures pool.
If you can't settle on one, then picking your top three or four and using our FREE – yes FREE – Dutch Wager Calculator could give you better odds on three/four horses than the post-time favorite on Derby Day.
The current favorite in the futures pool is All Other Three-Year-Olds at 9/2. That's not the name of a horse, just horses other than the 23 mentioned by name. TIZ THE LAW is the fav at 8-1. At this point, the Barclay Tagg trainee had to be in our dutch bet.
Tiz the Law at Belmont Park
His 3 length win in the Grade III Holy Bull stakes looks a whole lot better today than it did on February 1st. Beyond the highest speed rating recorded for the 23, he topped ETE INDIEN who just demolished the field in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes. TIZ THE LAW is currently fifth on the Derby leaderboard with 22 points. He'll most likely need at least another 10-15 to guarantee his spot in the 2020 Kentucky Derby.
As impressive as ETE INDIEN was, we can't include him in our top three because he was soundly beat by TIZ THE LAW. Another that we'll pass on is MAXFIELD at 15-1. He's starting to train again, and well, but the rumor is he'll skip the Kentucky Derby and is eying the Preakness for his comeback.
For our second horse, we'll take the San Filipe winner between AUTHENTIC (12-1) and THOUSAND WORDS (15-1). Both are undefeated Bob Baffert horses and the winner will have defeated another top-quality horse in a competitive field. If neither wears the Filipe crown, then we'll pass on both. (this story went to post prior to the San Filipe.).
Thousand Words taking the W
That doesn't mean we will disregard the San Filipe winner, HONOR A.P. (20-1) would claim the spot should he hit the Santa Anita wire first. The Grandson of A.P. INDY, the 1992 Horse of the Year, smoked the field in his last race, breaking his maiden in his second try.
Our final pick is another Baffert horse, CHARLATAN (12-1). He has just one race on his resume, but it was a good one. In fact, it was the best, first race speed figure for any of the listed horses, topping 100. Only seven of the 23 have reached the triple-digit benchmark.
As of now, CHARLATAN isn't entered into any Derby Qualifiers. However, horseplayers cannot overlook that blistering 6 furlong win, clocking in at 1:08.4. No other horse has come close to the number, by horse racing terms. As a rule of thumb, one second equals 5 lengths. The closest any other horse would have been is 3 lengths behind. That's a comfortable win.
Of course, the landscape and odds are going to change a lot in the next month as the 2020 Kentucky Derby field is finalized. We are keeping a close eye on all of the prep races, marking down our favorite, to make sure we are prepared for this year's Derby.
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