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SUNDAY, JULY 19, 2020
by: Rich Bieglmeier
Unfortunately, COVID 19 has hit 15 jockeys at Del Mar Park and that's why there isn't any racing where the turf meets the surf this weekend. Obviously, we at Guaranteed Tip Sheet are more concerned with the wellbeing of those who make what we do possible. We pray for their health and quick recovery.
Horseplayers looking to get some action on Kentucky Derby horses now can place their wagers via the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 6. Better hurry though, the pool closes at approximately 6:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 19, 2020.
Our top 10 Rankings, horse number and listed odds in the current Wager Pool (Prior to the Haskell).
| Horse Name | Post | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Honor A. P. | 8 | 5 |
| Tiz the Law | 21 | 2.5 | Authentic | 3 | 10 | Art Collector | 1 | 4.5 | Cezanne | 4 | 20 | Shared Sense | 17 | 30 | King Guillermo | 9 | 30 | Max Player | 11 | 30 | Rushie | 16 | 30 |
HONOR A.P. and AUTHENTIC appear to offer the most value as horses that might be amongst the favorites. TIZ THE LAW is likely to offer odds lower than 5/2 on Kentucky Derby day. Backers might think about putting money towards TIZ THE LAW now.
For me, CEZANNE looks like the best bet a 20-1. He's only raced twice, the lightest in the pool, and showed significant improvement in round two compared to round one. I don't believe we've seen the best of the son of CURLIN and he has a lot of winning to do to live up to that $3.6 million price tag, by far the most expensive horse in the pool.
With Del Mar closed, there is only one stakes race this Sunday with a jackpot of at least $100,000. The Grade II, $150,000 Lake Placid Stakes at Saratoga. Eight, three-year-old fillies will take on the inner turf course for 1 1/8 miles.
It's a decent wagering race as the morning line favorite, CAT'S PAJAMAS (PP: 8) is the oddsmaker's half-hearted choice at 5/2. She won her last two outings, which were her first efforts on grass after starting her career oh and two on dirt. She has reason to move forward in her third start following a long break. Trainer Graham Motion hits at 15% in third races off the bench.
We like CAT'S PAJAMAS as our second pick but see more value in QUEEN'S EMBRACE (PP: 4 ML 6-1). She's moving up in class after posting the highest, last race speed figure by a wide margin. She also put the top late pace figure on paper. There isn't a ton of early pace in the field; so, she shouldn't find herself too far from the front. Although, she will likely need to pass the pre-race favorite to make it to the winner's circle.
STUNNING SKY (PP: 6 ML 3-1) is our third choice, getting a slight nod over the rail horse, SPEAKTOMEOFSUMMER (ML 5-1). Both will be stationed near the back after the gates open and will look to take charge late. STUNNING SKY is stepping down in class from a Grade III in her second start off the sidelines. She typically runs better in the second race of the two-race cycle and she ran a decent race in her last, despite the sixth-place finish.
SPEAKTOMEOFSUMMER is on the same path, second start off the bench with a class drop from an out-of-the-money Grade III finish. She ran flat all the way around the track; although, the fractions were considerably faster than any she faced before. If she can show more stamina in her second off the break, and run at a similar pace, she could ride the rail home.
Have a question for Rich Bieglmeier? Email him at gtsrichb@gmail.com.
Good luck at the races!
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