2020 Kentucky Derby: Predicting the Future via the latest Kentucky Derby Betting Pool

SUNDAY, APRIL 5, 2020
 
by: Rich Bieglmeier
 

The NBA is hosting a video game tournament of NBA player versus NBA player. NASCAR has iRacing, another simulation where drivers from various circuits virtually race against one another. The Nevada Game Commission has okayed iRacing betting. ESPN’s SportsCenter is actually reporting on the outcomes of these imaginary events.

Surely, other sports will follow in the absence of real games.

We figured we’d join in on the sports simulation craze too, using the current 2020 Kentucky Derby Futures Pool. We limited our entries to only those horses that currently have enough qualifying points to run in the Kentucky Derby. Seventeen horses in the current 2020 Kentucky Derby Futures pool are also ranked in the top 20 of the qualifying leaderboard.

These are the results of 100 simulations.

And they are off in the virtual running of the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

Ete Indien in the Fountain of Youth Stakes

ETE INDIEN (FPO: 20-1) takes the lead at the first call, followed closely by THOUSAND WORDS (FPO: 30-1). NADAL (FPO: 6-1) runs a close third with KING GUILLERMO (FPO: 20-1) tucked in fourth.

Horses are jockeying for position as they run down the backstretch. ETE INDIEN continues to hold the lead. NADAL moved in front of THOUSAND WORDS as STORM THE COURT (FPO: 50-1) makes a move, challenging THOUSAND WORDS for third. Meanwhile, KING GUILLERMO begins to fade.

Heading into the turn ETE INDIEN maintains his lead but TIZ THE LAW (FPO: 6-1) is coming hard, taking over second from NADAL, who is battling STORM THE COURT, neck and neck for third and fourth. Some of the early leader’s legs are tiring as THOUSAND WORDS and KING GUILLERMO/ are backing up as MISCHEVIOUS ALEX (FPO: 30-1) makes his way to fifth.

 

Nadal at Santa Anita

Out of the turn, ETE INDIEN is battling to keep his lead with TIZ THE LAW pressuring him on every step as NADAL, STORM THE COURT and MISCHEVIOUS ALEX try to make up ground out of the turn as they head for home.

And the crowd roars to their feet as down the stretch they come for the 146th running of the Kentucky Derby!

ETE INDIEN and TIZ THE LAW continue their epic battle with the lead switching hands head-bob after head bob. SOLE VOLANTE (FPO: 30-1) has roared from the back of the pack and is closing hard, gobbling up space on the leader with each stride. He’s going to make it close to the wire, can he get there? AUTHENTIC (FPO: 8-1) has finally shown up, running fourth.

 

Tiz the Law – your 2020 Kentucky Derby winner?

Flash, at the wire it’s a three-way photo finish between ETE INDIEN, TIZ THE LAW and SOLE VOLANTE. After careful review and a rider’s objection, the tote board goes final with TIZ THE LAW winning the roses by a nose from ETE INDIEN, SOLE VOLANTE third, AUTHENTIC barely nosing out ENFORCEABLE (FPO: 50-1) for fourth and MISCHEVIOUS ALEX finishing a distant sixth.

The outcome seems plausible to us. If you like one of the 2020 Kentucky Derby contenders, using the current futures pool for a win bet is likely to get you higher odds on your horse today than on Derby Day.

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Good luck at the races!

 
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