Stakes Analysis: Rancho Bernardo, Saratoga Special and Fasig-Tipton Waya
SUNDAY, AUGUST 12, 2018
Man, what a busy Saturday of stakes racing. Many unexpected longshots probably caused some of the best handicappers to pull their hair out. Maybe hitting that quick pick button occasionally isn't such a bad thing!?
All kidding aside, Sunday has a nice slate of seven Stakes Races with at least $100,000 in prize money on the line. And, for the first time we have two Radar Horses running in the same race. The pair of Radar runners will square off in the third race at Arlington Park: DO NOT ENTER (PP: 1 - M/L 10-1) and GORGEOUS GEORGE (PP: 3 - M/L 9/2).
To find out how we think they stack up, Get all our Radar Picks, Stakes Tips, and Commentary on today's tipsheets.
A third Radar Horse is covered in one of today's three highlighted stakes races:
Del Mar Race 3 - $100,000 RANCHO BERNARDO HANDICAP G3
Saratoga Race 8 - $200,000 SARATOGA SPECIAL STAKES G2
Saratoga Race 9 - $200,000 FASIG-TIPTON WAYA STAKES G3
As of late, horses that rate right off the front runners have the upper hand at 6.5-furlongs on the Del Mar dirt. A slew of horses came from second and third at the quarter pole to the winner's circle. Past performances say all six horses entered can fit that profile - back to pulling on the hair.
To decipher who is going to be where out of the gate, we have to dig a little deeper into the numbers, specifically fractions. Our analysis points to YUVETSI (PP: 2 - M/L 6-1) and ANONYMITY (PP: 3 - M/L 8/5) as the two likely to lead at the 1/4 mile marker. SKYE DIAMOND (PP: 4 - M/L 9/5) and TURKISH TABBY (PP: 1 - M/L 15-1) could be right behind, rounding out the top four.
Considering the recent bias, the winner is likely to come from this quartet. This is where the third Radar Horse of the day comes into play. Our tipsheet states "In her last, ANONYMIITY ran in Allowance Optional Claiming $62,000 and posted the best 7-furlong time, meet-to-date. The time topped two $150,000 stakes winners by more than half a second. My friends, that's picking them up and putting them down in lightning fashion. It's ANONYMITY's third off a layoff, and she's yet to be challenged in 2018."
We think one other from the early four mentioned could make it in-the-money as well. Watch ANONYMITY take Race 3 at Del Mar on July 29th:
Another case where you need to pull up the hood and check the numbers is with two-year-olds. The terrible-twos are capable of anything, be it humans or horses. And that's what we have at Saratoga in Race 8, the Grade 2 SARATOGA SPECIAL STAKES.
Funny thing is, this year's two-year-olds are next year's three-year-olds who compete in the Triple Crown races. You never know, as we mentioned, if one from this group could prove to be that special.
According to our tipsheet's bonus commentary, this is how the 8th plays out: "TIGHT TEN ran the fastest fractions and won easily in his debut. He probably has more than he showed breaking his maiden. CALL PAUL was the most heavily bet in his debut, ran the highest speed figure, and won at 40% after the maiden race. SIR TRUEBADOE already has a Grade 3 win under his belt and his early fractions were second best last out. MEADE wasn't really threatened in his debut and trainer Todd Pletcher wins at 26% with two-year-olds."
From Saratoga's 8th to the 9th, and from the babies to the ladies, the FASIG-TIPTON WAYA is a long one, 1 1/2 miles on the inner-turf, where the rail horse has won at 30%. However, that number is down from nearly 60% just a week or so ago. Still, 30% is too high a figure to ignore.
Santa Monica Races for the Win at Woodbine
We haven't ignored it, but we don't see LOTTIE (PP: 1 - M/L 9/2) winning the race but expect the five-year-old to figure in the exotics. Instead, we see SANTA MONICA as the lady to beat. "Since coming to the USA to run in 2018, SANTA MONICA has two wins and a second in three races. One of those wins was a Grade 2 in her latest effort. It's her second outing after a break and benefits from top jockey/trainer pair of Ortiz/Brown. MOM'S ON STRIKE comes off the shelf sharp. Five wins in 11 races on the grass, one-for-one at the distance. LOTTIE beat our top choice in her lasting race, since she's been resting; history says she'll need one to be her best: rail wins at 31% on inner-turf."
It's a big day at the races, best of luck!
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