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Breeders' Cup Picks: Friday's Head2Head Wager Showdown
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2018
by: Rich Bieglmeier
The Breeders' Cup Head2Head wagers are another way horse players can wager on the Breeders' Cup on Friday and Saturday.
The Friday matchups consist of the following and have a $10 minimum bet requirement:
Friday, November 2
Race 6 - Juvenile Fillies Turf: USA (1) vs Europe (2)
Race 8 - Juvenile Turf: USA (1) vs. Europe (2)
Race 9 - Juvenile: Complexity (1) vs. Game Winner (2)
Early on, the odds are 1-1 for both sides of the contests. If the odds don't change, simple math can put you on the right-side of the bet from a probability standpoint. We'll look at each as a math quiz, throw in a little handicapping from our Breeders' Cup Wager Guide, and make our picks.
Friday Race 6 - Juvenile Fillies Turf
First up, the field is set at 14 with 10 horses deemed US based and six from Europe. We know, that adds up to 16 as two of the horses are Alternative Entries and will get into the race if one of the 14 scratches.
Elementary math says 10 is better than six. That works out 62% USA based and 38%, but the field is 14 with nine from this side of the Atlantic and five from that side. That skews the bet even more in the US favor.
Just from a number of horses standpoint, there is a 64% chance a US based horse hits the tape first on a 50% bet. So, in 100 instances, 64 times an American horse would win and 36 times a European. If you bet $10 each time on the US side, or $1,000 total, you'd win $6,400 and lose $3,600 for a net of $2,800.
From a probability standpoint, that's easy money.
Now, using morning line odds. The sum of the odds for US horses is 0.83 and 0.43 for the European entrants. (To do that we calculate the implied probability. For Example, CONCRETE ROSE is 6/1. This is the formula - denominator / (denominator + numerator). You can multiple by 100 is you want to turn the result into a percentage. For CONCRETE ROSE the math looks like 1/(1+6) or 1/7. We do that equation for each horse and then add them up. Then divide US and then European horse totals by the sum of all the horses to arrive at the numbers above.)
Based on the morning line odds, the US side has a 66% chance of winning (0.83/(0.83 + .43). That's better than 62% using the number of horses in the field. Again, easy money from a probability standpoint.
From our Free Churchill Downs Picks Section and Breeders' Cup Wagering Guide, we put NEWSPAPEROFRECORD (PP: 6 ML 2-1) as our top choice, a US horse.
The Pick: USA
So now that we've shown you the math and logic behind our picks, we'll shorten the explanation for the rest of the Breeders' Cup Head2Head contests and just give out the facts.
Friday Race 8 - Juvenile Turf: USA (1) vs. Europe (2)
Field Size: 14
US Horses: 9
European Horses: 5
Entrant based probability: 64% US 36% Europe
Morning Line Odds
Our Free Churchill Downs Picks Section and Breeders' Cup Wagering Guide Pick: CURRENT (PP: 12 ML 5-1) - US horse.
The Pick: USA
The next Head2Head is a little different as it is horse versus horse. We'll use the same odds calculation and then our race selection to make the play.
Friday Race 9 - Juvenile: Complexity (1) vs. Game Winner (2)
Our Pick: GAME WINNER (PP: 9 ML 8/5)
Morning Line Odds
GAME WINNER 8/5 implied probability: 38.5%
COMPLEXITY 5/2 implied probability: 28.57%
Between the two - GAME WINNER has a 57.4% chance of beating COMPLEXITY to the line first.
The Pick: GAME WINNER
Good Luck at the Races and make sure you get our Breeders' Cup Wagering Guide and come back tomorrow for Saturday's Head2Head selection.
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