Breeders' Cup Picks: Saturday's Head2Head Wager Showdown

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2018
 
by: Rich Bieglmeier
 
The Breeders' Cup Head2Head wagers are another way horse players can wager on the Breeders' Cup Saturday.

It is the second day of the Breeders' Cup Head2Head wagering. We got two of three right yesterday, taking the USA in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and Game Winner topping Complexity in the Juvenile.

There are four more binary opportunities today, either or propositions so we can use math, and some handicapping to put us on the right side of probability.

The four Head2Head wagers are:

Race 6 - Filly and Mare Turf: USA (1) vs. Europe (2)
Race 8 - Mile: USA (1) vs. Europe (2)
Race 10 - Turf: Enable (GB) (1) vs. the Field (2)
Race 11 - Classic: Mendelssohn (1) vs. Thunder Snow (2)

Before we move onto our picks, let's quickly recap how we use implied odds to calculate the chances that one side has versus the other. Using morning line odds, we calculate the implied probability with this formula: denominator / (denominator + numerator). You can multiple by 100 is you want to turn the result into a percentage. For example, if a horse is 6-1, the math looks like 1/(1+6) or 1/7. We do that equation for each horse and then add them all up. Then divide the choice's total i.e. USA or Europe by the sum of the whole.

We know you didn't come for a math lesson, onto the picks.

Race 6 - Filly and Mare Turf: USA (1) vs. Europe (2)

From a very basic match standpoint, there are nine USA horses versus five European fillies and mares for a field of 14. Nine divided by 14 means 64% of the horses are on the US team. All things being equal, an American horse is nearly twice as likely to find the tape first.

Using implied probability, the odds go down for the US side as morning line odds predict a 56% chance for TEAM USA. Considering the US squad has nearly a two to one horse advantage, that means the oddsmakers believe Team EU has the better horses.

If you take a look at our Churchill Downs Free Picks or have our Breeders' Cup Wager Guide, you'll see we've put SISTERCHARLIE on top. The four-year-old is in camp USA.

The Pick: USA

Race 8 - Mile: USA (1) vs. Europe (2)

The Mile favors Europe with eight entries versus six for the USA, USA... That translates to 57% of the horses are from the other side of the Atlantic.

Despite having a numbers advantage, the implied probability based on morning line odds is almost right down the middle of the road. Europe has a slight 52% to 48% advantage.

Again, using our Churchill Downs Free Picks or Breeders' Cup Wager Guide, our pick to win the race is OSCAR PERFORMANCE. In fact, three of our top four picks are US based.

The Pick: USA

 
Race 10 - Turf: Enable (GB) (1) vs. the Field (2)

This one is a little different. Of course, like everybody else, we have ENABLED as the one that will get their picture taken in the winners' circle. However, implied morning line odds and one versus 12 others might mean it makes sense to take the field.

Let's see what the math says. The excel sheet has spoken, ENABLED has a 38% chance to win.

Although our pick is ENABLED, the math says we should go the other way for the Head2Head only.

The Play: The Field

Race 11 - Classic: Mendelssohn (1) vs. Thunder Snow (2)

Well, math doesn't help us here as it's an A versus N choice and they are both 12-1. This one comes down to straight handicapping. We didn't pick either one to win. So, let's peek inside our Breeders' Cup Wagering Guide to see what our handicapper has to say.

Mendelssohn - from the Early Race Outlook:

"MENDELSSOHN always wants to be upfront. CATHOLIC BOY, MCKINZIE and WEST COAST might let him set the early pace as MENDELSSOHN has a history of fading late."

Thunder Snow - from our Value Plays and Longshots Commentary:

"Thunder Snow is our top-choice to pull off an upset. He just missed in his first race in the US, coming for the UAE and Europe. Many horses have difficulty making the trip over the ocean - both ways - he should be better in US race number two. If he is..."

The Play: based on our Wagering Guide, it looks like the question answers itself. THUNDER SNOW

Good Luck at the Breeder's Cup and the Races.

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