Stakes Analysis: Del Mar Mile, Summer Colony and Sky Classic
SUNDAY, AUGUST 19, 2018
We are sure Lionel Richie wasn't thinking about Horse Racing when he wrote and sang Easy with the Commodores. Today is an easy Sunday on Stakes races in terms of the number of races, just three with purses of $100,000 or more. Yeah, I am easy, easy like Sunday morning.
C'mon be honest, you felt better after listening to that! Like the Commodores' melodic Easy, we hope to put you in a good mood with our analysis and horse racing tips on this easy Sunday morning.
The highest priced race is race at Del Mar, the Grade 2, $200K DEL MAR MILE HANDICAP. And let us tell you something, handicapping this race was anything but easy. But, with difficulty comes opportunity.
We have a dozen boys, three-year-old and up, running a mile on the Del Mar grass. The morning-line favorite, SHARP SAMURAI (PP: 4) is 7/2. Although he has won four of his last six races, and 50% of his turf starts, we have our eye on a Radar Horse in this spot.
From our bonus commentary: "FLY TO MARS ran the fastest 1 1/16 mile turf effort, meet-to-date at Del Mar, by more than a second. Ran his fastest speed first after a break, a favorite angle. MARS usually gets better second out; last was good enough." Watch the California Dreamin' Stakes on July 28:
Through Friday's racing, our Radar Picks produced 11 winners (42.31%) in 25 races. To break even with the sort of winning percentage, you need odds of 3/2. We've been averaging closer to 5/2. Maybe more impressively, 80.77% of our Radar Horse Racing Tips have finished in-the-money. They make for great wheel plays in exotics to help keep your costs per ticket down.
An example of a trifecta wheel might look something like:
It looks like a two-horse race at Saratoga's $100K SUMMER COLONY STAKES. Speed horses have destroyed 1 1/8 runs on the dirt. An amazing 22 of 34 winners ran first or second at the quarter poll. That's 64.7%. So, if you can get a speed horse at 4/5 or higher, that's a positive ROI.
In our view, "MOONLIT GARDEN is likely to hold one of those spots after the gates open. If she comes off a short break ready, maybe one/two in this five has what it takes to get by GARDEN. If our top pick isn't on the lead, the AWESTRUCK is likely to hold that belt. She's faded late the last two races; so, she'll need to improve on the staying power."
If the is going to be an upset horse, it will most likely be NOMORERICHBLONDES. They paid a half-a-million dollars for this pony. So far, he's put more than $200,000 in the bank running in Dubai.
We end our easy Sunday of stakes racing north of the border: Woodbine Race 9 - Grade 2, $175K SKY CLASSIC STAKES.
This is an anomaly race for the Bine. Anybody that's ever watched their horse on the lead fade late, over-and-over-and-over again, knows closers rule at Woodbine. Yeah, except for race of 1 1/4 or more on the turf. The opposite of what one might expect. Our BIAS analysis found three of five winners went wire-to-wire in recent races of 1 1/4 miles or more.
DANISH DYNAFORMER looks like a vulnerable, morning-line favorite
Here is how we see it in our bonus commentary, "TIZ A SLAM is going to try to be on the lead as he's gone gate-to-wire in back-to-back races. A similar effort to either and it could be three. UTMOST is the other candidate to blast out of the gate in a flash. Last time, UTMOST gave it up at the wire; should be stronger in second outing after layoff. BLACK SEA should rate right behind our top two. If either or both falters, he'll be there to take advantage. DANISH DYNAFORMER is the morning-line favorite, coming off the bench. He looks vulnerable as his recent first start record is not impressive, no better than fourth."
Sit back, relax and enjoy your Sunday morning, it's Easy.
Best of luck!
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